Correcting Tropical Cyclone Paths for Risk Assessment

Tropical cyclones are one of the most destructive weather phenomena however their intensity falls rapidly over land. For real assets such as real estate and most infrastructure assets it is important to measure physical risk frequency and severity over the relevant geospatial area, over land.

Klimetrics uses information from IBTrACS for evaluating risks related to tropical cyclones based on “over land” occurrences and severity. In our view, this results in a more precise risk assessment based on more representative event distribution. IBTrACS (International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship) provides the most complete global data on tropical cyclones available.

The charts below illustrate the event profile correction using data for tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin since 1980. The correction adjusts the risk distribution used in Klimetrics’ geolocation analysis. These adjustments are made for all global basins.

Generally applied Tropical Cyclone risk event data

Klimetrics Tropical Cyclone risk event data corrected using “over land” events

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About Klimetrics

Klimetrics is provided by Kania Advisors, a quantitative analytics and technology firm focused on real assets. Kania Advisors is formally supporting the TCFD framework and is included in the TCFDs list of supporting companies in the Information Technology category.